ACUS11 KWNS 191944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191943=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...South-central/southwest NE...northwestern
KS...eastern CO...and northeastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191943Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-risk will increase during the next few hours.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns. A watch may
eventually be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate a surface
boundary/wind shift extending roughly from the Palmer Divide
northeastward into southwestern NE -- where cumulus continues to
deepen and isolated convective initiation is ongoing. Additional
convective development is noted along the higher terrain from CO
southward into NM. Through this corridor, continued diurnal heating
of a moist outflow-modified air mass (middle 50s to lower/middle 60s
dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield moderate
surface-based instability. Farther northeast in south-central NE, an
additional recovering outflow boundary (evident in visible satellite
loops) may also provide a focus for thunderstorm development --
aided by pockets of heating through cloud breaks.

With a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel westerlies (per regional VWP) atop
sheltered east-northeasterly low-level flow, long/mostly straight
hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) will favor splitting
supercells and organized clusters capable of large hail and severe
winds. There is uncertainty on overall convective evolution and
coverage of storms given lingering inhibition associated with
earlier outflow and generally weak large-scale ascent, though a
watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5lsguEEsAfb-Vl5WnDo3Sul4TQfv6Fz-VWr16p5WC3yENqJQFE5ew1pP2ZGw7EWihQ-01Xl6= lwTWn2n0KI0q5Gs84I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38770105 38940060 39150020 39400004 39739994 40749990
41159993 41360005 41480032 41530079 41470103 41170127
40890154 40330227 39940294 39430367 39100407 38710428
38220438 37150439 36700433 36490382 36620331 36930292
37250261 37680233 38260201 38570159 38770105=20


=3D =3D =3D
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