ACUS11 KWNS 191942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191941=20
MNZ000-192115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191941Z - 192115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Organized storms are possible later this afternoon across
northern Minnesota. The primary threat will likely be large hail and
severe winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to expand south out of
southern Canada in an increasingly unstable environment across
northern Minnesota. These storms are currently in a region with
relatively weak mid-level flow and less than 30 knots of shear. This
likely explains the lack of more robust storm development thus far.
However, ascent and shear should increase this evening as the left
exit region of the mid-level jet overspreads the region. This may be
sufficient for more organized storms later today. Large hail and
severe wind gusts will likely be the primary severe weather hazards, particularly west of the surface front where surface flow has veered
and a more inverted-v thermodynamic profile has developed. However,
a tornado or two may be possible with storms in the vicinity of the
surface front which arcs from east-central Minnesota into
north-central Minnesota where hodographs are small, but demonstrate
some low-level clockwise curvature. A severe thunderstorm watch may
eventually be needed if one or more organized storms/storm clusters
can develop.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6mbsWldoafJ-IwYPeOocD9OMrJRV6VQ7IdrkbPIpic7F9WqYD03NGjEnYewnSfl9zHl3_09Q3= Txw7Eo3wbZ2SG8F0iM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 47709655 48219595 48749565 49029558 49389516 49339474
48969459 48739410 48619366 48679299 47009242 46179232
45759303 46249443 46789574 47249628 47709655=20


=3D =3D =3D
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