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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1627

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 19 15:41:03 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 191540
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191540=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-191715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1627
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1040 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...East/northeast North Carolina and far southeast
    Virginia.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 191540Z - 191715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through early
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster near the center of a MCV has
    gradually increased in intensity across central North Carolina over
    the last hour. Downstream, temperatures have warmed into the low to
    mid 80s with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. This has yielded 1500 to
    2000 J/kg MLCAPE with most inhibition eroded. Some additional
    heating is likely which could lead to further destabilization. This
    will result in strengthening of ongoing convection and the potential
    for additional thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the MCV.=20


    The KRAX VWP shows 55 to 60 knots of flow around 4km which far
    exceeds any forecast guidance. This strong low-mid level flow should
    provide ample shear for organized convection and rotating updrafts.
    Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. A
    slight risk will be added in this region at the 1630Z Day 1
    Convective Outlook and a watch may be needed by early afternoon.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5nV8u1n6ipq3YTOl8p-EJi3cgqMnIamlnbaw_WKyw--DYc35EztGfqww8BZkK0oJptWIGLcvR= bvfAyTJSECluIFjyx4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 35627541 35567567 35477631 35457693 35497783 35827826
    36047854 36937778 37347682 37317626 37157569 36387565
    35887543 35627541=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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