ACUS11 KWNS 191111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191111=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Missouri...southern
Illinois...western Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...

Valid 191111Z - 191315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe surface gusts may still
increase near/north of the Cape Girardeau into Paducah vicinities
through 7-8 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development continues, and
remains generally focused within a persistent/slow moving zone of
stronger low-level warm advection. Activity appears rooted above a
remnant shallow stable surface-based layer associated within prior
convective outflow, where moderately strong south to southwesterly
elevated updraft inflow is characterized by seasonably high moisture
content with CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg.

Convection has tended to weaken while spreading south of the
Kentucky/Tennessee border, to the west of the Greater Nashville
area, perhaps as it advects southeast of the better forcing for
ascent. However, colder cloud tops and higher lightning flash rates
have generally been maintained upstream, to a possible evolving
cluster north/northeast of Farmington MO. Based on its current
motion (southeasterly around 30-35 kt), this trailing cluster will
overspread the Cape Girardeau MO into Paducah KY vicinity through
12-13Z. As it does, the Rapid Refresh has been indicating potential strengthening of rear inflow (to 50+ kt), at least in mid-levels,
which could eventually be accompanied by strengthening southeastward
surging outflow and increasing risk for strong to severe surface
gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7n93xd7euDLHP7U1N_Fdslg5NzWPI2jXcOsev4r5nERloDB8szqoR5QRPU4Sue_9vWXIKKOMx= RiGpvt0QvBfm1ccp40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 37849007 37788893 37138834 36618813 36488850 36458887
36998961 37479012 37849007=20


=3D =3D =3D
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