ACUS11 KWNS 190143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190143=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-190245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...southern SD into northeast NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

Valid 190143Z - 190245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over south-central South Dakota may
continue to track south-southeast the next couple of hours. Damaging
gusts and hail will persist with this cluster.

DISCUSSION...Several severe/damaging gust reports have been noted
with a cluster of storms tracking south/southeast in the Lyman/Brule
County SD vicinity. Boundary-layer inhibition increases with
eastward extent and may limit severe potential to the east of WW
514. However, if the cluster persists in a more southerly direction
along the axis of greater instability, potential for severe/damaging
gusts may persist toward the SD/NE border. While it is uncertain if
this activity can be maintained into NE, especially given the lack
of a stronger low-level jet, trends will be monitored and a small
severe thunderstorm watch into parts of northeast NE could become
necessary. Otherwise, WFO FSD could extend WW 514 into more of
southeast SD if necessary.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JPNennqh9U2h35kFBANMIJboo8mU2yXB2Yx8taold1FpAndcFbd53S5i1WuihxkI4aklFEqb= DOhT8fMbTgCK35NmWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 44209904 43819791 43099758 42499763 42229851 42249923
42459982 43240016 43960013 44160005 44209904=20


=3D =3D =3D
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