ACUS11 KWNS 182129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182129=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...far western Tennessee...northeast Arkanas...and
northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182129Z - 190000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will
remain possible for a few more hours, and a new watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows a decelerating outflow boundary extending
from extreme northeast AR to just northeast of the Memphis TN area.
Recent trends indicate strengthening storms on the southern
fringe/outflow of the southeast MO MCS, with impressive echo IR
presentation. Surface analysis confirms a very moist and unstable
air mass remains in place south of the AR activity and west of the
TN outflow, with dewpoints approaching 80 F in spots. Given the
uncapped air mass and robust convection now ongoing over northeast
AR, a new watch will likely be issued downstream extending into
parts of western TN and northern MS.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jCE2sszLp85C1Pus03FJsPERVu5L-xFekacICaKjG4mHupq-OWXCXlYJzQAL94VvgJ9CpilO= ZwpZcnDJU1_25afBPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 35999133 35959060 35938999 35878980 35768951 35438910
35178843 34798820 34428837 34228879 34328973 34579039
35029085 35589130 35999133=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)