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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1618

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 18 20:01:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 182001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182000=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-182130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1618
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern KY into western and Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...511...

    Valid 182000Z - 182130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510, 511
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues with an
    east-southeastward-moving MCS over southwestern KY into western and
    Middle TN this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...An MCS extending from southwestern KY through Middle
    into western TN is tracking east-southward, with a forward motion
    around 40 kt at the apex of the bow. Several wind-damage reports and
    gusts as high as 60-70 mph have occurred with this activity. While
    weak low-level flow and veered surface winds (per regional VWP an
    surface obs) may be limiting the intensity of this system to an
    extent, a feed of strongly unstable surface-based inflow (lower 90s temperatures and middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should continue
    supporting the maintenance of this system given a well-established
    cold pool. 40-50-kt midlevel west-northwesterly winds sampled by
    regional VWP should also support continued organization --
    especially for the northern portion of the MCS where shear vectors
    are oriented perpendicular to the gust front. This
    forward-propagating segment of the line should pose the greatest
    severe-wind risk in the near-term.

    Along the western segment of the MCS in western TN, a local
    extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510 may be warranted as
    damaging-wind risk continues southward.

    ..Weinman.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4y0ktJI9cJVBbBMTvGFAsh4x5NlukYU4cVaurU0JErXFRDO6PjDRevfXMbhgSsIa3SZTBz2eU= iE_Wv8iFVVGecy9UjM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36068889 36018926 35948948 35628946 35338937 35118906
    35068843 35238763 35518688 35788624 36308582 36758566
    37318574 37508602 37608649 37658694 37628725 37518735
    37438745 37318746 37208739 36908728 36578737 36358763
    36198821 36118856 36068889=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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