ACUS11 KWNS 181815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181815=20
SDZ000-WYZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181815Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the
Black Hills region this afternoon. Coverage of storms is expected
to remain too limited for a watch, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery show
isolated thunderstorms beginning to form over parts of
Custer/Pennington counties of western SD. These storms are
developing over the higher terrain of the Black Hills, where
dewpoints in the 60s and strong heating have led to high CAPE values
over 2000 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates and quite steep, and
favorably strong westerly flow aloft will promote the potential for
large hail in the stronger updrafts.

Large scale forcing is quite weak across the Dakotas, and rather
warm temperatures in the capping layer suggest that storms will
struggle to move off the higher terrain. Therefore, while continued redevelopment of storms is possible over the mountains, the overall
coverage of severe risk is quite low. A watch is unlikely at this
time, but trends will continue to be monitored.

..Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5v7mY-y0MaK61VjPa3t02EmcrEzC5iRfbwI36UMke3_AylkBnGCzB1lnRaVlGh2YEHa0yWGar= tct_tKHoZA7h6SJNO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44460399 44550274 44060226 43220276 43250380 43560418
44460399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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