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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1614

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 18 16:12:26 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 181612
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181611=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-181815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1111 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New York...Northern and Western New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181611Z - 181815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to locally severe storms are
    expected this afternoon. It is unclear if coverage of storms will
    warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
    across eastern NY and much of New England, where dewpoints are in
    the mid-upper 60s. This warm/humid air mass will yield afternoon
    MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and rather steep low-level lapse
    rates. A shortwave trough over western PA will provide large scale
    forcing for ascent across the region, leading to widely scattered
    thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show that the strength
    of the winds aloft and thermodynamic parameters look favorable for a
    risk of damaging winds in the stronger storms that can form.=20
    However, most recent CAM solutions suggest that coverage of storms
    will be somewhat limited. Satellite/radar trends will be monitored
    through the early afternoon, with a severe thunderstorm watch
    issuance possible.

    ..Hart/Bunting.. 07/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-T__SeZTveY_LbAtd29p_Hc5QCPyIrE3kr5HZOISoymm6fk2sPoBw2OQenjRAu_wafIlzCcSc= 3gEpg1q35EDpWUDun0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44457596 45107485 45057154 45797051 46996982 47256898
    44836951 42907221 41597370 42327525 42737772 44457596=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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