ACUS11 KWNS 180224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180224=20
KYZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

Valid 180224Z - 180400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
continues.

SUMMARY...A small storm cluster may pose a threat of hail and
damaging wind into late evening.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening east of
Paducah in western KY. The downstream environment remains somewhat
favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg and marginally favorable deep-layer shear per recent objective mesoanalyses. While nocturnal cooling/stabilization will eventually
result in a weakening trend, a short-term severe threat will likely
continue with this cluster into late evening.=20

Relatively strong outflow will likely pose at least an isolated
damaging-wind threat. Also, while the mode may trend toward linear
with time, stronger embedded cells may pose an isolated hail threat,
given the modestly favorable buoyancy and midlevel lapse rates (as
noted in the 00Z BNA sounding).

..Dean.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7tsVxIMEh5DJ54R0iq7D8gMHsC51ohnQwVqQ3rR-CnetiUe5VLqxY3-CLE85_8jbqteGMrxb2= vHtMJiM2nysYzO-fqo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON 37598786 37618669 36998658 36678657 36698799 36668834
37598786=20


=3D =3D =3D
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