ACUS11 KWNS 180141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180140=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-180315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Central/southwest MO into AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...507...

Valid 180140Z - 180315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504, 507
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and severe gusts may persist into
late evening, but should become increasingly isolated with time.

DISCUSSION...A general weakening trend has been noted with
convection across parts of MO/AR, though a couple of stronger cells
are still ongoing in northern AR. The environment across
central/southern AR remains strongly unstable, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized storms (as noted on the 00Z LZK
sounding). However, the storms across northern AR are elevated atop
the remnant outflow from earlier convection, and it remains
uncertain as to whether these storms can spread into the more
favorable environment. However, even if these storms remain somewhat
elevated, MUCAPE remains sufficient for some hail threat.=20

Farther north into MO, earlier intense supercells have weakened as
they moved out of the increasingly narrow instability corridor
across northern MO into a region where substantial convection
occurred earlier in the day. While a stronger elevated storm or two
cannot be ruled out, WW 504 will likely be allowed to expire at 02
UTC (9 PM CDT).

..Dean.. 07/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kx_EpV4XPTiQCxbjpgOadPbnOAy_R8cXWPYFoqxRsh_9VD_1D1vQ1DiBedZjxBLyz4Hcdfm-= AYBFxpbZbfdGr-AKjI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 38929335 37489204 36409145 35269141 34129169 33849266
34009316 34759395 36429401 38859387 38929335=20


=3D =3D =3D
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