ACUS11 KWNS 172046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172045=20
AZZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172045Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon.
A watch is not expected given the localized/sporadic nature of the
severe risk.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the
Mogollon Rim and far south-central AZ this afternoon, where
temperatures have warmed into the 105-110 F range amid upper 50s
dewpoints. The resulting deep boundary layer/steep low-level lapse
rates -- characterized by an inverted-V thermodynamic profile --
will support dry microburts with severe-outflow potential with any
stronger updrafts that develop. Weak deep-layer shear should
generally limit updraft longevity/organization, and the overall
coverage of severe storms is expected to remain too minimal for a
watch.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qW1dq0f9gqCmUCvYzw6s9ShTT2hwEPwlXjPLl9FC2SoBy2JJGrnZhf_DZ8UA57EPUq9HjC_1= ikr_qz64vH_4ImUuB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31271116 31421164 31641217 31971236 32761244 33801246
34211236 34361207 34391165 34181103 33791041 33060985
31690944 31300954 31280990 31271116=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)