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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 17 20:01:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 172001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172001=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0301 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central IN and far east-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172001Z - 172200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk is expected to increase across parts of
    central IN during the next few hours. Trends will be monitored for a
    possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a band of modest
    low-level confluence along the southern periphery of a baroclinic
    zone draped across parts of north-central IN -- where an isolated
    thunderstorm is tracking eastward from far east-central IL.
    Continued heating amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding
    moderate surface-based instability and steepening low-level lapse
    rates across the pre-convective environment. This instability,
    coupled with effective shear strengthening to around 30 kt, should
    support organized clusters and perhaps supercell structures capable
    of large hail and damaging winds this afternoon into early evening.
    Overall storm coverage is uncertain with generally weak large-scale
    ascent, though additional storms could develop within the confluence
    zone and spread east-southeastward into the increasingly favorable
    environment during the next few hours. Convective trends are being
    monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JrpyzJ6jSwqARAku1mG8d501NFmWk2FpP-gmwnsGJJ1f4yG76veeWdCg3L17u-u56wmcviIp= -WkF1cDW9oiHAWklwM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39828493 39148500 38938512 38828549 38748593 38708673
    38748710 38908748 39098767 39678772 40068765 40358758
    40548744 40568719 40528675 40408594 40348523 40228505
    39828493=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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