ACUS11 KWNS 171942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171941=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171941Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple severe storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds are possible this afternoon. The area is being
monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are spreading slowly east-southeastward
over parts of central/southern IL this afternoon, with some updraft organization noted over southwest/south-central IL. These storms
could maintain intensity as they continue east-southeastward given
an increasingly unstable pre-convective air mass (around 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE) and strengthening deep-layer shear (35-40 kt of effective
shear). While this environment will support organized clusters and
supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds,
generally weak large-scale ascent casts uncertainty on storm
coverage across the area. Convective trends are being monitored for
a possible watch across parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-UObaPInDw1otmnjja9_5xRC5KkMSFinMlvd7axLC4kPxTuJQ_wBHNSZKZewRdMQvE8HBBE57= UTh4xEMid-SgD57bRs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39708760 39328760 38978761 38768767 38158800 37838827
37748871 37758918 37838953 38028986 38239012 38779021
39149015 39398996 39628980 39808956 39918926 39998892
40038850 40058801 39968775 39708760=20


=3D =3D =3D
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