ACUS11 KWNS 171935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171935=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern KS into
north-central/northeastern OK and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

Valid 171935Z - 172100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues across parts
of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and vicinity. The
need for a downstream watch into portions of Arkansas remains
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally weakened in the past hour or
so across northeastern OK and vicinity, probably due to weaker
large-scale ascent and residual boundary-layer capping/inhibition
with southward extent into eastern OK. One thunderstorm did recently restrengthen across far northeastern OK into northwestern AR. If it
can persist, then an isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue
into more of northwestern/north-central AR this afternoon given a
strongly unstable and sheared environment that will remain favorable
for supercells. Still, the need for a downstream watch into AR
remains uncertain, as the overall severe threat will probably tend
to remain rather isolated in the short term.

In the wake of the earlier cluster, some redevelopment appears
possible across south-central/southeastern KS into north-central OK
based on recent visible satellite trends. Any surface-based
convection that can form across this area will likely be
supercellular, with a threat for very large hail given 50-60+ kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear and 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. But, a
lingering cap may continue to inhibit robust thunderstorm
development with westward extent in south-central KS/north-central
OK. Given this uncertainty, the western/northern extent of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 503 has not been cleared at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kWw4iWyv_Z-Yk7veqBSjvGb4gbYypd02miQQdUKUbPu4MUi3_Ep86piZZ_9BA4l-4M2o20C5= 335udKLj4iqwr1dAQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37059828 37859812 38009551 37109516 36809505 36459464
36439385 36409277 36139255 35639257 35049275 34979361
34959440 35319538 35719667 36289784 37059828=20


=3D =3D =3D
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