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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 17 17:53:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 171753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171753=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern OH...western WV...and far southwestern
    PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171753Z - 172030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of damaging winds
    and isolated large hail will increase through the afternoon. A watch
    is possible for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery indicates a
    corridor of deepening convective towers and isolated to widely
    scattered thunderstorm development across southeastern OH, western
    WV, and southwestern PA this afternoon. Weakly confluent
    boundary-layer winds and continued diurnal heating of a moist air
    mass (upper 60s surface dewpoints) should favor additional
    thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While modest
    midlevel lapse rates may limit initial updraft intensity to an
    extent, 30-40 kt southwesterly midlevel winds (per regional VWP)
    could favor several loosely organized clusters capable of wind
    damage (and isolated hail) -- aided by steepening low-level lapse
    rates and water-loading. Coverage and intensity of severe storms is
    somewhat unclear, though convective trends will be monitored for a
    possible watch across parts of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6O35dxqE4bJ-Kky8GdwOplHPsmS_lBxHqfhAVuOl41evQl_NQuEtCIeuNkvj47YWjRv6niWQ5= KIrSe-sOxkStxw6dFQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40398111 40198151 39978185 39748224 39608254 39478298
    39318332 39158337 38878329 38648300 38368256 38218212
    38168170 38278123 38498077 38928024 39537961 40007932
    40287935 40497976 40568019 40558058 40558068 40398111=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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