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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 17 17:49:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 171749
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171748=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-172015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS into MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 171748Z - 172015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe/damaging winds will be possible
    with thunderstorms that form this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance will likely be needed for some portion of this area.

    DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster in northeastern OK has
    generated an outflow boundary which is slowly moving
    northward/eastward across eastern KS into MO on recent visible
    satellite imagery. A weak front and convectively reinforced outflow
    from thunderstorms across southern IA/northern MO earlier today has
    also advanced southward into the same general area. The merging of
    these two outflow boundaries will likely support parcels reaching
    their LFCs over the next 1-2 hours, as the airmass across eastern KS
    into MO is strongly unstable and generally uncapped per latest
    mesoanalysis estimates (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg with minimal MLCIN).

    Ascent associated with the nose a mid/upper-level northwesterly jet
    will also aid robust convective development early this afternoon.
    Related 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will foster updraft
    organization, with supercells initially posing a threat for large to
    very large hail expected. With time, some clustering of convection
    may also occur, with a greater severe/damaging wind threat spreading southeastward with time. While details regarding convective
    evolution remain somewhat uncertain, the increasing severe hail/wind
    potential this afternoon will likely justify issuance of a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Bjug4ep7HZIYIQOxDD4jUQxudgHHTDyGnNujmXgNyIs8whFoE04QWjZfEcb2Rllt1SVxWDWc= 5RQ7dxwDcQ7cNSFsec$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37999590 38679570 38799396 38399125 36709023 36529154
    36589410 36949450 37379456 37579520 37999590=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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