ACUS11 KWNS 171505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171504=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-171700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO into northeastern AR
and western KY/TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171504Z - 171700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradually increasing threat for severe hail and damaging
winds may warrant watch issuance this morning.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms is present over
southeastern MO this morning. One of the thunderstorms embedded in
the cluster has recently strengthened into a supercell in a
moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. Clear skies
downstream into western KY/TN and the presence of a very moist
low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper
70s) should support an increasing chance for surface-based
convection over the next couple of hours as lingering MLCIN
gradually erodes. Any cell that can remain at least somewhat
discrete should pose a threat for large hail. If convection
continues to cluster and move southeastward with time, then
severe/damaging winds would be a greater concern as low-level lapse
rates steepen. Convective evolution for the rest of this morning
into early afternoon remains uncertain. But, given the favorable
environment, watch issuance may eventually be warranted if
thunderstorms can strengthen further.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kNzaoApMQ8jNhGm8dVV0OPlcHPTguNZb9QWXqD3bgAzdcgodfSCtXGOSQzhVmiOJ0isY2meq= Lm90tRjIdAHwzk3E0o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 37279177 37489152 37709100 37489019 36778899 36418888
35728890 35498963 35579060 36039158 36709185 37279177=20


=3D =3D =3D
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