ACUS11 KWNS 171341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171340=20
MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southestern NE...southern
IA...northern MO...and far west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171340Z - 171545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe hail threat may continue this
morning. The need for a downstream watch remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells which formed earlier this morning
have produced several severe hail reports of 1-1.75 inches in
diameter. Strong northwesterly deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt should
continue to support updraft rotation with this convection in the
short term, with supercells likely remaining the dominant mode. The
12Z sounding from TOP shows steep mid-level lapse rates and 3000+
J/kg of MUCAPE available to sustain this activity as it spreads east-southeastward from southeastern NE/southern IA into parts of
northern MO and far west-central IL, with somewhat less instability
estimated with eastward extent across this area. Large-scale ascent
associated with an embedded shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest
seems to be the primary driver of these thunderstorms, as low-level
warm advection appears weak at best. Given some potential for the
severe hail threat to continue for at least a few more hours this
morning, consideration is being given to Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6jrctRW2fS-0r8CKLQZXmF14Gv-_tKzzGXFl6_B7sccnAPakmZJO3QXpr7ww8SRCWQPPTsG9c= nZGTRBnjCgaeVmBaR8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40629686 41259575 41459455 41209259 40539137 39459144
38929261 39129459 39759610 40199684 40629686=20


=3D =3D =3D
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