ACUS11 KWNS 170158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170157=20
OKZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northwest and north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...

Valid 170157Z - 170300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts are possible with
storms moving south/southeast out of Kansas. The spatial extent of
the threat in Oklahoma does remain uncertain, however.

DISCUSSION...A potent supercell that moved through parts of
south-central Kansas has dissipated near Medicine Lodge, KS.
Additional storms have formed along the outflow boundary near Dodge
City, KS and atop the cold pool into south-central Kansas. Strong
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will allow storms to organize
and pose a threat for large hail and isolated strong/severe wind
gusts. The strongest storms could produce hail up to 2 inches (as
was recently reported northeast of Dodge City). Given some
increasing MLCIN downstream, how far south/southeast the storms will
move is not certain. There will be some increase in a southwesterly
low-level jet this evening that may help sustain some storms.
Upscale growth could also occur allow further southward propagation.

..Wendt.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rr_1fIAV3L8CEQrtH-itTZYR_CVDAwMOOaTpydfXzMWetGLcRf1CU9l1p9ucKOINKwQGU_dN= _nPW24QwSsF6wEuyZQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35829784 35679808 35679857 35939895 36399936 36619959
36919962 36969946 36989896 36999850 36969796 36159766
35969779 35829784=20


=3D =3D =3D
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