ACUS11 KWNS 170130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170129=20
KSZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...South-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 170129Z - 170230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary corridor for the threat of large hail and
strong/severe winds will be in south-central Kansas. Additional
develop could occur as the low-level jet increases, but the coverage
and intensity of such development is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...The large supercell that moved through Great Bend and
Pratt has lost some intensity over the past hour. This primarily
occurred as outflow along the western flank of the storm began to
push farther away and newer updrafts ceased interacting with and
being ingested into the dominant storm. Even so, strong effective
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates observed on regional evening
soundings suggest that large to potentially very large hail and
strong/severe winds will remain possible as this storm nears
Medicine Lodge. Other convection has developed atop the outflow from
the main supercell. Despite being slightly elevated, these storms
have exhibited strong cores on area radar and would still pose a
threat for at least marginally severe hail.

The overall evolution of convection does remain uncertain. Ongoing
convection likely will favor southward motion into the low-level
moist axis. As the low-level jet increases this evening, it is
possible that additional storms could try and form on the outflow to
the west. Capping on the 00Z DDC sounding lowers confidence in that
scenario. Farther east, the low-level jet will be weaker and
development along an older outflow boundary is even less certain.

..Wendt.. 07/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7pT3iwW4JOHkmMCsudQ0M3JR6WaqoWH3vhCEhdVumS1-1hH2uEOOXp7YFwIpRPQSwuHV7nXvL= EWwwSeeR4DdL63moLE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37109974 37890088 38240094 38660053 39019934 38949852
38389720 37769676 37529688 37209748 37099772 37059792
37049813 37059865 37089967 37109974=20


=3D =3D =3D
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