ACUS11 KWNS 162246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162245=20
OHZ000-INZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Central IN into western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162245Z - 170015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and damaging wind may
continue for a few hours this evening. Watch issuance is currently
considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity early this evening across central IN. While diurnal
heating was tempered to some extent by smoke across the region,
modestly favorable low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE in the
750-1500 J/kg range, generally decreasing from west to east.
Meanwhile, moderate midlevel west-northwesterlies (as noted on the
KIND VWP) are resulting in 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient
for some storm organization.=20

While a few organized storms may evolve this evening, the severe
potential may remain relatively isolated. Weak midlevel lapse rates
will tend to limit the severe-hail threat to some extent, while
generally weak and veered low-level flow is not favorable for more
widespread damaging-wind potential. However, if a supercell or two
can become sustained, then some threat for isolated hail may persist
into mid evening. Localized damaging gusts will also be possible,
especially if some outflow consolidation can occur with time.=20

With the threat currently expected to remain somewhat isolated,
watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oYrIv1evgeII281BhiLDak1Jg0gwE-fD8hdk6LoQObGtHMubIFKsK0m5ZyrQj15U8SLm_iys= uczCJxiq-X5NFQhqzE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40248729 40398672 41208543 40948465 40818392 40568377
40188378 39768423 39398518 39298658 39438732 39688748
40248729=20


=3D =3D =3D
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