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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1582

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 16 21:00:34 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 162100
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162100=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-162230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1582
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0400 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Far southeastern MO and southern IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

    Valid 162100Z - 162230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 499 this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for
    a possible downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLSX depicts a broken line of
    thunderstorms tracking eastward across parts of southeastern MO into southwestern IL this afternoon -- where several wind-damage reports
    and measured severe gusts have occurred. In the short-term, severe
    winds and sporadic large hail will remain possible with this
    activity -- aided by a unidirectional westerly wind profile
    characterized by 30 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear (per KLSX VWP data)
    oriented perpendicular to the larger outflow boundary.=20

    As these storms continue east out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499,
    it is unclear if storms will maintain intensity (especially along
    the southern parts of the broken line) where deep-layer shear is
    weaker. However, steep low-level lapse rates and favorable
    deep-layer shear downstream of the northern part of the line may
    continue to support organized clusters capable of wind damage.
    Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gSh4EBWqX4H5nOd9mifyGnfhv9VMhEiyL63L-kezwUxqq0mTAlh-xYJ6ctVgsozRmQgklx6I= 8NgdtOumKyLhU4zPIs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37729068 38069060 39188979 39518950 39638910 39648851
    39538797 39228770 38788776 38428795 37938827 37518874
    37358910 37278950 37239018 37349051 37549068 37729068=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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