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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1580

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 16 20:32:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 162032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162031=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-162300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1580
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western SD into far northwestern NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162031Z - 162300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
    with any storms that can develop across the area this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening boundary-layer cumulus generally focused over the Black Hills and a NW/SE-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone over southwestern SD this
    afternoon. Modified RAP forecast soundings over this area depict an
    uncapped air mass, characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates atop
    moist northeasterly low-level flow. Continued heating over the
    higher terrain and along the confluence zone may support isolated
    thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours, though
    storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent over the
    area.=20

    If storms can develop, a long/straight hodograph (50-60 kt of
    effective shear) would support splitting supercells capable of
    producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Additionally, a
    back-door cold front will approach the area during the next few
    hours, which may also support an uptick in thunderstorms though the
    evening. While a watch is not currently expected given uncertainty
    on storm development/coverage, trends will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-CssFxI09_N_ASHlo-4xdgyKukxmoDQLKyKStjkA_PD_CVcQJ1U46YrJ5ZL8qB8VVmG3LXGer= ok1sT7dvpVUBPaumy8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42720350 42980373 43250389 43550399 43860401 44170402
    44440401 44740397 44930377 45000343 44820296 44420227
    43870163 43400133 43010140 42590189 42420233 42390281
    42550324 42720350=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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