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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1579

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 16 19:05:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 161905
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161905=20
    KSZ000-162130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1579
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0205 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161905Z - 162130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk may increase across parts of the
    area through the afternoon. Convective and environmental trends are
    being monitored for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite imagery
    indicated a WNW/ESE-oriented remnant outflow boundary draped across
    parts of central KS this afternoon -- where a pocket of deepening boundary-layer cumulus is developing. Steep midlevel lapse rates
    accompanying an EML plume across the area, coupled with diurnal destabilization, will yield moderate surface-based instability.
    Given weak large-scale ascent and lingering inhibition at the base
    of the EML, thunderstorm coverage may be limited across the area.
    However, any storms that can mature in the vicinity of the remnant
    outflow boundary could pose a risk of isolated large hail and
    locally damaging gusts given an elongating/straight hodograph (40-50
    kt of effective shear).=20

    It is unclear if a watch will be needed this afternoon, though the
    severe risk should increase further this evening as isentropic
    ascent atop the remnant outflow boundary gradually strengthens.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pS90nYhWSBQxGqcIJ7AN8IwzjRWB3bQos7JW6qui7oQ79zOWEJcTzD8CYsklJdEZ__HPdTEW= VWBB-SYuX42FdwMVBM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39770010 39929976 39939921 39899859 39789768 39639717
    39519678 39269646 38969634 38619627 38209637 37989665
    37929706 37879951 38080005 38420024 38820035 39270033
    39770010=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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