ACUS11 KWNS 161850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161850=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-162015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX into southern AR and
northern LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 161850Z - 162015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds around 50-60 mph will likely
spread east-southeastward across parts of northern Louisiana and
southern Arkansas this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster has recently intensified
across northeast TX while producing multiple reports of tree damage,
prompting issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498. A very unstable
airmass and steepened low-level lapse rates are present downstream
of this cluster across northern LA and southern AR, with MLCAPE of
3000-4000+ J/kg present. Although deep-layer shear remains modest,
generally 20-30 kt or less, this cluster will probably maintain its
intensity as it moves east-southeastward across northern LA and
vicinity over the next couple of hours. Given the very favorable
thermodynamic environment, scattered damaging winds generally around
50-60 mph should continue to be the main threat with this
convection. Locally greater winds to 65-70 mph may occur.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9D3SCeT-ZyziCh0bBQZRjtJy-aalQcUBTJGpBTLJZt746CzuczOiv7Yh8A1L3gBQiFNLK2xJR= t2hAmyRVBzS55oko8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 33569422 33219287 32599212 31709221 31629306 32379480
32819450 33569422=20


=3D =3D =3D
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