ACUS11 KWNS 161824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161824=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/southern MO into west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161824Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
potential this afternoon. A watch issuance is possible for parts of
the area depending on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
developing along an east-southeastward-moving outflow boundary
associated with a remnant MCS over parts of northwestern MO this
afternoon. Efficient heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s/lower
70s surface dewpoints) beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will
continue to destabilize inflow for this activity as it
spreads/develops east-southeastward through the afternoon. While
deep-layer flow/shear across the pre-convective environment is not
particularly strong, stronger midlevel winds should gradually
overspread the area during the next couple of hours -- yielding
around 30 kt of effective shear. This should generally support a few
loosely organized storms capable of marginally severe hail and
damaging winds initially, with a possible increase in severe-wind
potential if any localized upscale growth occurs with
east-southeastward extent.=20

Veered surface winds and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear across
the warm sector casts uncertainty on storm longevity and coverage,
though there appears to be some potential for a watch for parts of
the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!632qh-7UEIWCd_cqZ8gsI_CL9EbLdqxQS0UQ-dZRS7SrMd6p608ekL9yc4fwhiFq7nyNk5QO8= 2lgbv3vsUNPEQMuyvE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37969436 38099387 38329287 38569243 39149207 39389188
39589159 39699111 39689066 39579031 39278996 38858988
38229018 37809067 37499139 37159266 37159347 37259412
37509445 37759448 37969436=20


=3D =3D =3D
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