ACUS11 KWNS 161732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161731=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-161900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Long Island into New England

Concerning...Tornado Watch 497...

Valid 161731Z - 161900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 497 continues.

SUMMARY...The brief tornado and strong/gusty wind threat should
continue to gradually lessen this afternoon. Tornado Watch 497 will
likely be allowed to expire by 3 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Embedded convection within a broad area of
precipitation has struggled to intensify much this afternoon owing
to very poor mid-level lapse rates. Recent trends from the VWPs at
KBOX/KOKX show low-level winds have generally veered to
southwesterly, which has reduced low-level shear owing to a more
unidirectional wind profile with height through low/mid levels.
While a brief tornado and occasional strong/gusty winds remain
possible with any low-topped convection in the short term, the
overall severe threat should continue to gradually lessen with time
this afternoon as a southerly low-level jet becomes more focused
across ME into Canada. Accordingly, Tornado Watch 497 will likely be
allowed to expire by 3 PM EDT, or sooner.

A substantial threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding exists
across parts of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and much of New England
today. See WPC's Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions 745/746 and
various flash flood warnings from multiple WFOs for more information
on this flash flooding threat.

..Gleason.. 07/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fPTbDzxV8l4puYNp29c4i6uRdQQpLthjXMvJwm0VIr6KwhFXiI_REE5-Y7umK8hWdeg4ddJ-= u_MbWzKsOB886MmpgI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41087370 41487224 41897165 43117120 43847085 44017063
43937008 43317049 42467086 41547131 40987227 40617360
40857377 41087370=20


=3D =3D =3D
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