ACUS11 KWNS 152355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152354=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO into northeast NM...the western OK/TX
Panhandles and TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of hail (possibly very large) will
continue early this evening. Some severe threat may spread
southeastward with time, and eventual downstream watch issuance
appears likely by mid evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2350 UTC, several supercells are ongoing from
northeast NM into southeast CO, with baseball-sized hail reported
earlier in Mora County, NM. Relatively moist low-level southeasterly
flow will continue to support moderate buoyancy this evening, with
rather long/straight hodographs continuing to favor discrete
supercells with a large-hail threat.=20

Thus far, right-moving supercells have shown little eastward
propagation. However, with time, some clustering and upscale growth
will be possible as outflows consolidate, which will tend to
propagate south-southeastward along the instability axis into
western parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and TX South Plains. Any
notable clustering would result in an increasing severe-wind threat,
along with a continued risk for some hail, and eventual downstream
watch issuance into the OK/TX Panhandles and TX South Plains appears
likely by mid evening.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!843S7ViUO7qb5a4ps9kM0QkoKGDWupRpZvhrpWFWsHsPnvTP2zWs8b9dBjB-FrJRPr5p9Urti= zjhHn_dDE_8nlOIHFA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34610573 37800459 37730322 37280279 36590241 35530207
34800209 34370207 33830219 33650362 34320480 34610573=20


=3D =3D =3D
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