ACUS11 KWNS 152014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152014=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern TX...southeastern OK...and
southwestern AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 152014Z - 152215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible through the afternoon. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are developing/spreading slowly southward along a weak baroclinic
zone/differential heating boundary draped across the ArkLaTex.
Within the pre-convective environment, strong surface heating amid
very rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 70s to lower 80s dewpoints)
is contributing to a strongly unstable air mass (3500+ J/kg MLCAPE).
As the inflow for these thunderstorms continues to diurnally
destabilize this afternoon, updrafts may increase in intensity on a
localized basis. While deep-layer flow/shear is generally weak
(especially with southward extent), marginally severe hail and/or
locally damaging gusts may accompany the stronger pulsating storms
through the afternoon -- especially if any localized clusters
develop.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-QCHYuVxlc92nLC3KTb1agGVmloiiNvoW7344zuWsWKpW6yIb95jOufdTEKkY1y65d1IGhVp9= luE-LB_-XVUFzCBEZs$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 33319615 33039612 32939595 32869522 32989431 33099339
33249246 33649213 33999208 34279222 34489240 34689264
34749301 34649359 34459422 34349454 34079524 33819581
33609602 33319615=20
=3D =3D =3D
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