ACUS11 KWNS 151951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151950=20 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far northwestern NC...southwestern into central/northern VA...the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...DC...south-
central into southeastern PA...northern DE...and NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151950Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail and damaging winds should
gradually increase this afternoon. While watch issuance is unlikely
in the short term (next 1-2 hours), trends will be closely
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon along and just east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains extending from far northwestern NC into southwestern and
central VA. A separate area of convection is ongoing across parts of southeastern PA into northern DE and NJ. This activity is likely
being aided by modest large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave
trough moving eastward over the OH/TN Valleys. A very moist
low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to
mid 70s, is present along and east of the ongoing convection. Ample
daytime heating has eroded remaining MLCIN, and moderate to locally
strong instability has developed in response.

Although low-level winds remain weak per recent VWPs from KFCX/KLWX,
modest strengthening of mid-level southwesterlies to around 30-35 kt
has been noted with the approach of the shortwave trough. Similar
values of deep-layer shear should foster modest updraft
organization. Multicells should be the primary convective mode. But,
marginal supercell structures may also occur, posing an isolated
hail and damaging wind threat. At this point, overall convective
coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated. Poor mid-level lapse
rates should also temper updraft intensity/acceleration to some
extent. A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms over WV may
also move into parts of western MD/VA over the next couple of hours
with an isolated strong to damaging wind threat. While watch
issuance appears unlikely in the short term, trends will be closely
monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1gVH5DZYM7U6OpTNrb5gIJKoMPkqYp0H4aQUN65XAH5vV5ut7EoWIEadXmjruvxr0m4NiSUF= XA7pKPxTKjRFkS6z_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37018157 37438010 38907932 39757903 40217668 40877532
40457434 39367529 37997764 36248092 37018157=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)