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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1564

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 15 19:30:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 151930
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151930=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-152130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1564
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of southeast/south-central CO...northeastern
    NM...and far western TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151930Z - 152130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing very large hail and
    severe gusts are expected this afternoon/evening. A watch will
    likely be needed for parts of the area in the next 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and related orographic ascent are
    yielding increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and isolated
    thunderstorm development along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in
    southern CO into northern NM this afternoon. Continued mesoscale
    ascent amid eroding inhibition should support isolated to widely
    scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the next
    couple of hours. A belt of strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow
    will allow this activity to spread east-southeastward off the higher
    terrain into a moist/destabilizing air mass (lower/middle 60s
    dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates). The moderate/strong surface-based instability coupled with a long/generally straight
    hodograph (40-55 kt of effective shear) will favor
    discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells capable of producing
    very large hail (especially with early organization) and severe
    gusts. With time, cell-mergers could favor localized upscale growth
    with southeastward extent, with increasing severe-wind potential.

    A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area in the next 2
    hours, and an additional watch could eventually be needed downstream
    as the severe-risk continues spreading into the western TX
    Panhandle/South Plains this evening.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZrGx4GmsRvhCI3iJxiDPd8jIbudWm1_bxtX8xq_XFUOGHl4Bp8Yyj8kAvh2VaLTHCwqEtSNs= Nvbsq6fMfLbDaN1U3c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36040509 36660512 37280511 37620506 37760492 37870472
    37860440 37810414 37540359 37160322 36790299 36270284
    35710277 35180284 34870299 34680332 34640388 34730440
    35010473 35580498 36040509=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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