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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1563

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 15 19:18:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 151918
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151917=20
    COZ000-152145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1563
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central CO along the I-25 corridor

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151917Z - 152145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
    are possible through the afternoon. The severe threat is expected to
    remain too isolated for a watch here.

    DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus continues to deepen/expand along
    the higher terrain and foothills in central CO this afternoon, where
    recent convective development is noted. Continued heating and
    related terrain circulations will support isolated thunderstorms
    through the afternoon, though coverage and/or sustenance of this
    activity may be limited owing to weak large-scale ascent and
    lingering inhibition in the lee of the higher terrain. Nevertheless,
    a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow atop weak
    low-level southeasterlies is yielding an elongating/straight
    hodograph supportive of organized storm structures. Isolated
    instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible
    with any longer-lived updrafts.=20

    The isolated nature of the threat and limited confidence in storm
    longevity precludes a watch issuance here, though the severe threat
    will gradually increase over areas farther south through the
    afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WzB1a5oag2JlcX8U8ndRTgGpva6zqaAUhxk4qtVYxQjK6mL8TfqHHWClPHDuPA945f0J_2Mo= -3KmxS7bI-PWHUrqZc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38730426 38360425 38150431 37980442 37920461 37960483
    37960504 38000532 38130543 38400549 38790550 39210551
    39500551 39610543 39620526 39550480 39490456 39230439
    38730426=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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