ACUS11 KWNS 151817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151816=20
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern OH...far eastern
KY...WV...and extreme western VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151816Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms may persist and pose an
isolated threat for mainly damaging winds this afternoon. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing
along and near the OH/WV border early this afternoon. Filtered
daytime heating ahead of this activity has allowed surface
temperatures to increase into the mid 80s to low 90s across much of
WV. Corresponding modest steepening of 0-3 km lapse rates has
occurred in response per latest mesoanalysis estimates, with about
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE also present. Recent VWPs from KRLX show
modest southerly low-level winds gradually veering and strengthening
to around 40-45 kt above 6 km AGL. Resultant effective bulk shear of
30-40 kt will easily support continued organization with the ongoing
small cluster as it moves eastward across much of WV over the next
few hours. Even though mid-level lapse rates remain poor, there may
also be some potential for a supercell posing an isolated hail
threat. Regardless, the lack of stronger instability should tend to
keep the overall damaging wind threat fairly isolated, and watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_t7mLqmotLdqR1vKDeNUidIbd1N4KIsRF9TQPQ-DK5v9V4m56yG5Nm6esZN5108YX8pZKIm_= IYT7lt-pEVl162b3ow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

LAT...LON 38418248 39148211 39628101 39627972 39007958 37658002
37168141 37568285 38418248=20


=3D =3D =3D
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