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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1561

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 15 02:59:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 150259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150258=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-150430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1561
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas into Missouri Bootheel

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 150258Z - 150430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing segment is ongoing in
    north-central Arkansas. Wind damage will be possible in the short
    term with this activity. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may
    be considered if organization/intensity trends hold.

    DISCUSSION...Radar presentation and velocity data from KSGF and KLZK
    suggest that a well-organized bowing segment is ongoing in
    north-central Arkansas. Cooling downstream has been relatively
    modest this evening given how moist the airmass is. Even so,
    objective mesoanalysis shows a reduction in MLCAPE to around 1500
    J/kg MLCAPE. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
    ahead of the bow and lends additional uncertainty with regard to the
    quality of thermodynamic environment. Even so, the organization of
    the bow would suggest a threat of wind damage could persist into the
    later evening. Should convective trends hold, a downstream severe
    thunderstorm watch may be considered for parts of northeast Arkansas
    and perhaps the Missouri Bootheel. Uncertainty increases farther
    east into western Tennessee.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wcUEieSD6SlAqscHlhFyID0vnlTB8nXgQt8IHyYBt2Ete7i0UZvZW8vu8ByR1k6zGgx5Ug7h= MM8AI5zaEdWa1y3H6w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34719070 34579141 34609182 34699213 34879225 34969225
    35459197 36059142 36279114 36429075 36419024 36298983
    36198964 35668971 35238997 34719070=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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