ACUS11 KWNS 150230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150229=20
MIZ000-INZ000-150400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Northern IN into southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150229Z - 150400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread eastward late this
evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment has recently intensified across
northeast IL, with a 53 kt gust recently observed in Aurora, IL.
Some uptick in storm intensity has also been noted into central IL.
The downstream environment into northern IN and southwest lower MI
is not as unstable, but some low-level moistening from the
southwest, in conjunction with continued support from a midlevel
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes, may help to sustain
these storms as they move eastward late this evening.=20

While nocturnal cooling has commenced, a residual well-mixed
boundary layer resulting from earlier diurnal heating/mixing may
continue to support a threat of locally damaging gusts as storms
spread across northern IN and Lake Michigan into southwest lower MI.
Depending on trends over the next 30-60 minutes, watch issuance is
possible.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Bpuq4kNXxVSgtcC43MpXHKyhyDzafUm2dE2aqk6E6kxnJtYLVovvl28K4LNRoMruc5zAikz8= nfO1wB-cxs7oWGrzSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 43098702 43048505 41868504 40978551 40658603 40678672
40758723 41128730 42308722 43098702=20


=3D =3D =3D
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