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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1553

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 14 22:01:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 142201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142200=20
    MOZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1553
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...493...

    Valid 142200Z - 142330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 493
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely extend into central/east-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty how far
    east the organized bowing segment will progress.

    DISCUSSION...Long radar/satellite loops indicate outflow from prior
    convection has reached near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. A cluster
    of convection has developed north-northwest of St. Louis in a weakly
    sheared environment. Outflow has quickly spread away from this
    cluster. The well-organized bowing structure (with a history of
    measured severe gusts and wind damage) now in the eastern Kansas
    City suburbs should continue to the east likely just south of the
    primary outflow boundary where the airmass has at least slowly tried
    to recover this afternoon. The overall eastern extent of the severe
    threat with the bowing segment is somewhat in doubt given the
    outflow from the weak convection that may spread southward ahead of
    it. Shear should at least modestly increase with time given the
    approach of an upstream shortwave trough. The thermodynamic
    environment and storm-scale organization trends will likely be the
    modulators of the severe threat duration.

    ..Wendt.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CdUm4lV3RLdLqRzuIzOu5PUmkyOVUCs48r83-P2QBDNZttL2MkKXbz3biJqp3FrYyGPGJahk= O-gQfP9XLsyt1xmVNA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38409427 38549452 38749447 39069428 39269406 39219372
    39189320 39059239 38889137 38529092 38279104 38159163
    38179290 38259388 38409427=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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