ACUS11 KWNS 142100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142100=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 142100Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will increase across the central and
southern High Plains during the next few hours. A watch may
eventually be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate a surface boundary/wind shift extending east-northeastward from northeastern NM into southwestern KS, where
it intersects a southward-moving outflow boundary associated with an
MCS farther east. In the near-term, an isolated thunderstorm is
attempting to deepen along the wind shift in northeastern NM, where
a long/straight hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates will
support supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Farther
east, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening across parts of
southwestern KS into the OK Panhandle ahead of the
southward-advancing outflow, and additional thunderstorm development
is possible here during the next few hours. Similar to northeastern
NM, a moderately unstable air mass and around 40-50 kt of effective
shear will support organized storms including supercells capable of
large hail and damaging winds.

Convective evolution is somewhat unclear across this area, though
current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts
of the area.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nj8N1hjzw6-fcgbiyhUjo38_2i_UoaVUXhFCtXdFd3wtU6oZJm7Bjnq_CKJABiVBNKeWoeWo= 1zPcPwe36Y3Z6XGpqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35770211 35940291 36220366 36570386 36980378 37260337
37760251 38070170 38070127 37950084 36959963 36639939
36159939 35819970 35710044 35770211=20


=3D =3D =3D
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