ACUS11 KWNS 141943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141942=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern WY...northeastern CO...and
the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141942Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and severe wind threat may exist
with high-based thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have developed along and east
of the higher terrain in southeastern WY. This activity is occurring
in a post-frontal, low-level upslope flow regime. Limited low-level
moisture behind the cold front should hinder the development of any
more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, up to around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE, along with somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates,
should be enough for robust thunderstorms. A west-northwesterly flow
regime aloft is supporting around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear.
Isolated thunderstorms that can persist may acquire occasional
supercellular characteristics as they move southeastward this
afternoon and early evening, with a related threat for large hail
and severe downdraft wind gusts. Overall severe potential should be
limited by the weak instability, and watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Wnfubv2Esz4Bj_xvScWv8vbHp6uMVRnaDC2xgfjJ0FtpQ2hKgKqcNfGznNy1cmvN4bJly4go= NHQwM3C0OCewBB27a0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40500523 41290575 41950600 42980595 42750463 42210352
41210229 40350210 39780284 39770399 40500523=20


=3D =3D =3D
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