ACUS11 KWNS 141939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141938=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-142145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern MO...eastern IA...western and northern
IL...and southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141938Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. A watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates a low-amplitude
impulse embedded in a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel
flow overspreading parts of NE/SD/IA this afternoon. Along the
eastern edge of related stratiform rain and cloud coverage ahead of
this feature, temperatures are warming into the upper 80s amid lower
70s dewpoints. Continued destabilization coupled with increasing
large-scale ascent should promote scattered thunderstorm development
during the next couple of hours. Around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly long/straight hodograph) and steepening
midlevel lapse rates will support organized clusters and supercell
structures capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
Environmental and convective trends are being monitored for a
possible watch for parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-R1Jj1szrRuKwD-COkoLRAnLzSIPaVVbuK9zot7NZI0aT5V0kHfbjfGR3YOB7dOOQ-uzcjzfq= mrIclFPs7--nbVnnSQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41668758 41278814 40948860 40468908 39938947 39409006
39249062 39229114 39309155 39379201 39619249 40079261
40479254 40889242 41589220 42119198 42589179 42869153
43049106 43139030 43148972 43138899 43058842 42948782
42598759 42098751 41668758=20


=3D =3D =3D
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