ACUS11 KWNS 141903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141902=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490...491...

Valid 141902Z - 142030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490, 491
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe wind threat is increasing, including the
potential for 75-80+ mph gusts. Isolated large hail also remains a
concern.

DISCUSSION...Convection has begun to fill in between two previously
separate thunderstorm clusters across central/eastern KS. The
eastern cluster, currently approaching Topeka KS and vicinity, has
shown signs of an intense rear-inflow jet. Multiple measured severe
wind gusts around 60-65 mph have recently been noted with both
clusters in KS. The airmass downstream into southern/eastern KS and
western MO is strongly unstable, with MLCAPE generally 2500-3500
J/kg. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will continue to foster
convective organization. An intense MCS is still expected to
consolidate over the next couple of hours as it moves quickly across southeastern KS into western MO. Given the rather favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, significant
severe/damaging winds upwards of 75-80+ mph appear increasingly
likely. Isolated large hail will also remain possible with any
embedded supercells.

..Gleason.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48icmXfFxLNAiT6kLe3_0oEzZ5sLFFUr_8MgNVGjsmAMJ-9ma1riIjZpBg_CmAX8Lrfde-gUa= ze8tUASJCLXaR_Cu6o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 38839927 38939861 39179800 39089709 39369620 39739623
39659474 39159403 38679449 37919590 37479743 37609867
38019937 38439965 38839927=20


=3D =3D =3D
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