ACUS11 KWNS 141833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141832=20
MIZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141832Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with
thunderstorms moving eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed over parts of Lower
MI this afternoon as a subtle mid-level shortwave trough moves
eastward across the Great Lakes. Latest surface
analysis/observations show a weak trough draped Lower MI, and
tendency has been for the more robust convection to form on the
eastern side of the trough. Daytime heating of a seasonably moist
low-level airmass has contributed to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
so far this afternoon, with poor mid-level lapse rates limiting
greater instability. Even so, the latest VWP from KDTX shows modest boundary-layer winds gradually veering and strengthening with height
through 6-8 km AGL. Corresponding 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear
should provide enough updraft organization to support some threat
for multicells and marginal supercell structures, with some threat
for hail and damaging winds. Current expectations are that overall
coverage of severe thunderstorms will probably remain isolated
enough to preclude watch issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8tyZ9wIhqK7ktwXzO418YPgcLWUTXuoPN08MxpheAvOghgnSE_YPVtp-03G1nQZv50tqKcRaD= L9tZkZcOJrH2XJCe1o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42898550 44038541 44478504 44768456 44668383 44108301
43968264 43088236 42538255 41898332 41758424 41828569
42158609 42498613 42788595 42898550=20


=3D =3D =3D
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