ACUS11 KWNS 141625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141624=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-141830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Much of KS into far western MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 141624Z - 141830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts,
with some 75+ mph, is expected to increase this afternoon. Some
threat for large hail will also exist. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance will be needed as thunderstorms spread southeastward from
Nebraska into Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster/supercell in south-central NE is
beginning to show signs of upscale growth and a developing
rear-inflow jet based on recent radar imagery from KUEX. Indeed,
measured severe wind gusts up to 64 mph have recently been recorded
with this cluster. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds is
expected as this activity spreads southeastward this afternoon
across much of KS. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass and
steep mid-level lapse rates are present over western/central KS,
along and south of a convectively reinforced front (reference 12Z
DDC sounding). The airmass across eastern KS into western MO is less
unstable at the moment. But, continued robust diurnal heating of a
very moist low-level airmass across this region will act to increase
MLCAPE to around 2500-3000+ J/kg over the next few hours.

KS is on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly mid-level
flow. Still, enough deep-layer shear should be present to support
continued convective organization, with latest mesoanalysis
estimates showing 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear across KS. In
addition to the intense cluster/supercell in south-central NE, a
separate area of convection has developed along the surface boundary
across northeast KS. There is some potential for this activity to
also grow upscale into a severe wind producing MCS and impact
northeastern KS and parts of western MO. Otherwise, the primary
severe wind threat should remain focused with the cluster moving
southeastward out of NE and into central/eastern KS this afternoon.

A large reservoir of available buoyancy, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and an organized/intense bow shown in most
convection-allowing guidance all suggest a threat for significant severe/damaging gusts of 75-80+ mph across this region this
afternoon. Large hail will also remain a risk with any supercell
that can be sustained within or on the southwest flank of the
developing bow. Based on its current track, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance will be needed soon for much of central/eastern KS
and vicinity.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fv0jZKbsBxFCM2dAmmGr4VCi0HS-iGI6z6TObULR7lcnoCYwCsNVFthDQC7OXCEHLs7zl1rv= Jyly7au0cLC9QuzvZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 38960007 37849968 37059864 37309623 38059512 38659396
39599374 39939495 39909751 39419777 39159795 39039915
38960007=20


=3D =3D =3D
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