ACUS11 KWNS 140238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140237=20
OKZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 140237Z - 140400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe-thunderstorm threat may evolve through late
evening, and watch issuance is possible depending on short-term
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across
western OK for much of the evening, but deeper convection has
recently developed near a weak surface boundary across parts of
Caddo/Canadian Counties, with cell motion and the radar presentation
suggesting these storms are closer to surface based. With extreme
low-level moisture and instability in place (as noted in the 00Z OUN
sounding) and sufficient deep-layer shear, the environment is
favorable for supercells, and a conditional threat for all severe
hazards may evolve if any of the ongoing cells can mature and be
sustained this evening.=20

With generally limited large-scale ascent and a relatively
constrained spatial and temporal window for surface-based
development this evening, the need for watch issuance is uncertain,
but will be considered if storms continue to increase in coverage
and intensity.

..Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5LHn2szpHMLirYRVnwsvihhJYt3vZTVVShEUry9ZZ8YMsRfohbucAXr_5LTz4jA4Tqjmhws-= 37Iu1sGOTjNimCVecE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35779839 36109760 35989654 35619608 35229608 34939631
34889666 34909752 34909817 35239860 35779839=20


=3D =3D =3D
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