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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1536

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 14 01:36:37 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 140136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140136=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-140300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1536
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0836 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast CO into northeast NM and the western
    OK/TX Panhandles

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

    Valid 140136Z - 140300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail may persist into mid/late
    evening with ongoing supercells. Watch extension may be considered
    in southeast CO prior to 02 UTC.

    DISCUSSION...Two intense supercells are moving southward across
    southeast CO at 0130 UTC, with another supercell near the NM/TX/OK
    border region. The Baca County, CO supercell may have produced giant
    hail, based on MRMS hail-size estimates, and the environment will
    remain favorable for very large hail in the short term, with strong
    instability and deep-layer shear in place. Also, strengthening
    easterly surface winds noted across the TX/OK Panhandles and
    northeast NM may be indicative of increasing low-level shear, and a
    tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the ongoing intense
    supercells in this area.=20

    While the Baca County supercell may move out of WW 487 prior to the
    02 UTC expiration time, some severe threat could linger south of
    Pueblo, and local watch extension of either WW 483 or WW 487 may be
    needed depending on convective trends over the next 15-30 minutes.

    ..Dean.. 07/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!853oj6hLF2TyVGMuEd6ulBes29ClGGMJJF-JtAWEFT8k15WTqgib4lSwunXRbCP9yw3lkSOh0= Yw-aJnXS-2M5fqo3mM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 38450487 37790293 36970228 36060220 36020295 36210358
    36540425 37360495 38450487=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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