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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 13 22:22:06 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132221=20
    NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-132345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0521 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

    Valid 132221Z - 132345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will
    remain possible in eastern New York into far western Vermont,
    Massachusetts, and Connecticut. A downstream watch is not
    anticipated this evening due to a decreasingly favorable
    thermodynamic environment.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to
    move east through eastern New York and into Vermont. A couple
    discrete storms exist south of Albany as well. The shortwave trough
    is now lifting northeast into Quebec. While mid-level ascent should
    decrease with time, some 850 mb flow enhancement will remain as will
    a slightly better thermodynamic environment in southeastern New York
    into far western Massachusetts/Connecticut. Damaging wind gusts are
    expected to be the primary threat over the next 2-3 hours. Area VWP
    continue to show sufficient low-level veering to support a continued
    threat of a tornado or two. The best low-level shear is between the
    Red Hook/Albany vicinity per NY Mesonet profilers. Discrete storms
    in this area would pose the greatest risk for a brief tornado.
    Activity is expected to become more marginal with time as the
    boundary layer cools and mid-level ascent decreases further. A
    downstream watch is not currently expected this evening.

    ..Wendt.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5xiPVetEntO82cWpXz9slyxrk_qJ0CmoMB5YuHrNdDsk0I6PawcE2sx4IH7jJd8CXa7rUzKD= 33j-5kni4RA4nUCeYA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42157555 42287558 42427545 42697482 43407404 44087351
    44537319 44587297 44387233 44257211 43907179 43677172
    42697225 42047290 41777328 41707440 41817496 41987526
    42117549 42157555=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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