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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1528

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 13 21:49:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 132148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132148=20
    MNZ000-132315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1528
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132148Z - 132315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind will spread
    southeastward into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has
    recently developed across eastern SD, with several reports of severe
    hail in the last hour. Moderate buoyancy and unidirectional wind
    profiles with around 30-40 kt of effective shear are supporting
    occasional supercell structures, and some hail threat may continue
    as storms approach southwest MN, where a similar environment is in
    place. Farther north, strong to potentially severe storms are moving
    from eastern ND into western MN, and may pose a localized hail
    threat in the short term.=20

    With time, some clustering and modest upscale growth of convection
    is possible. While relatively dry conditions are noted across parts
    of central MN, steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support some
    damaging wind threat with any upscale growing cluster by early
    evening. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of
    western/central MN, depending on short-term observational trends.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ktoVwL-EeIwcSg91yQcEUTebYcaYcebKSRKY1ALrHVpq_yL-9qC3mzNtinZ-hFWZZL5XiANl= k-MVri_2DbEoEBx8Jo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 48079606 47959591 47159453 45899432 43629421 43599576
    43659640 44869643 45729641 46879654 47759658 48079606=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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