ACUS11 KWNS 131957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131956=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-132230-
Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023
Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far
northeastern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 131956Z - 132230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more
hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be
needed.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over
eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough.
Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at
mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of
30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing
clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete.
Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft
should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that
can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur
with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread
east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next
few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat
will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance.
..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4571fk8yYspZY5tgQ4dhN5VCqisPHEdhitCXJ8dseLzTcpwegHZfAWyq7QkheyccIqpCh26Qt= dM8qpOq65XyHJF4ONY$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740
46149888 46749924 47229932=20
=3D =3D =3D
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