ACUS11 KWNS 131923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131923=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Eastern WY...southwestern SD...western NE...and far northeastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131923Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will likely increase during the next
couple of hours, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. A
watch issuance is likely for parts of the area this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest day cloud phase satellite imagery indicates
increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus along the higher
terrain in eastern WY into northern CO, and additional deepening
over the Black Hills in western SD. Continued diurnal heating and
related orographic ascent should support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours.
As storms intercept increasing boundary-layer moisture (lower/middle
60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates in the lee of the
higher terrain in WY/CO, updrafts should intensify and increase in
coverage amid east-southeasterly upslope flow. Weaker instability
farther north into the Black Hills casts uncertainty on updraft
intensity, though a couple strong storms cannot be ruled out. 40-50
kt of effective shear and generally weak large-scale ascent should
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially, with a risk of
very large hail and severe gusts. With time, cell-mergers could
yield a couple organized east-southeastward-moving clusters with a
continued hail risk and increasing damaging-wind potential. A watch
will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6POVooN9uB_e-ja7mNpDBWKVzpRMQrWguCl43cLIfmuZZOJ5K1soFbE-H1sxfaNDVzXN9YrcC= 5DPSn8Hy0hud5uERaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40610217 40380299 40100346 39830396 39850450 40070471
40400476 41990487 43050490 43930483 44240450 44420396
44450343 44290261 43990208 43440160 42520154 41410157
40610217=20


=3D =3D =3D
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