ACUS11 KWNS 131921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131920=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of NY and VT

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

Valid 131920Z - 132115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for scattered to numerous damaging winds will
continue to increase this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally consolidated along the cold
front across western/central NY this afternoon. A moderately to
strongly unstable airmass is present along/ahead of these
thunderstorms, with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg estimated by latest
mesoanalysis. A couple of discrete thunderstorms with occasional
supercell characteristics have developed ahead of the line across
northern NY. Isolated severe hail may occur with this activity.
Steepened low-level lapse rates (0-3 km layer around 7-8 C/km) will
aid in efficient mixing of stronger downdraft winds to the surface.
And given the mainly linear nature of the convection ongoing
along/near the front, scattered to numerous damaging winds are
expected to be the primary severe threat through the rest of the
afternoon. A 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet remains focused across
NY/VT into southern Quebec. Associated low-level shear appears
sufficient to support some updraft rotation and tornado threat with
both the discrete thunderstorms ahead of the line and within the
line itself.

..Gleason.. 07/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_U9fpHLKwzumVpQKSZ9VkT5SszbemhdnAohEhpXKBoppnGBHNLDA-1d9x6TWv539IakCtAVFg= SDMaYF4UV-4GeCVQr4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42087694 43437567 44587533 44987472 45017357 44787263
43267317 42217510 42087694=20


=3D =3D =3D
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